Ӧ�ø���ͳ�� 2012, 28(2) 150-160 DOI:      ISSN: 1001-4268 CN: 31-1256

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Research on the Optimal Combination Forecasting Model and Its Properties Based on Exponential Supporting Degree
Yuan Hongjun,Chen Huayou,Hu Lingyun
School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics, School of Mathematical Science, Anhui University, School of Management Science and Engineering, Anhui University of Finance and Economics
Abstract:

Based on the definition of supporting degree,
we put forward the definitions of average index-supporting degree
and average dispersion, and we build an optimal combination
forecasting model based on exponential supporting degree. We also
give its equivalent average dispersion optimal combination
forecasting model. We propose the conception of superior combination
forecasting, we obtain the results, including the sufficient
conditions for the existing non-inferior and superior combination
forecasting, redundant forecasting and the redundant information
determination. Finally, we give the example to show that the model
is effective.

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