Credibility Adjustment Estimation of Journal Impact Factors in Bayesian Model

Journal impact factor is an important criterion for judging the quality of journals. In this paper, a Bayesian model is established for journal quality parameters, combined with existing journal impact factor calculation formulas, by using the theory of the credibility theory, a correction method for journal impact factors is given. We also obtained the estimation of structure parameters. The statistical properties of the estimation are discussed. Through simulations, the consistency and convergence speed of the estimators are tested. Finally, the empirical analysis of the correction formulas of the impact factors of more than twenty mathematics journals in China.