15 May 2011, Volume 27 Issue 2
    

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  • CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 113-123.
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  • Shi Jingtao,Wu Zhen
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 127-137.
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    An optimal control problem motivated by a
    portfolio and consumption choice problem in the financial market
    where the expected utility of the investor is assumed to be the
    Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) case is discussed. A local
    stochastic maximum principle is obtained in the jump-diffusion
    setting using classical variational method. The result is applied to
    make optimal portfolio and consumption choice strategy for the
    problem and the explicit optimal solution in the state feedback form
    is given.

  • Lu Fuzhong
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 138-150.
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    In this paper, if some extra interval
    data are available, that is, we assume we can know for sure whether
    the missing data belong to some prescribed intervals or not, and the
    missing data mechanism is known up to a -dimension unknown
    parameter , then, the estimators of the underlying
    distribution function and the unknown parameter can be derived, and
    their asymptotical properties are studied

  • Xu Lin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 151-162.
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    In this paper, an insurer with perturbed
    classical risk process and random premium income has the possibility
    of investment into a risky market. The price process of the risky
    market is assumed to follow a geometric Brownian motion. The aim of
    this paper is to obtain the asymptotical behavior of the ruin
    probability under the optimal strategy in the small claims. The
    constant (denoted by  maximizing the Lundburg exponent is
    derived. It turns out that the optimal investment level convergence
    to  when the initial surplus tends to infinity. That is to say,
    the constant we found is the asymptotically optimal strategy

  • Lin Qingquan,Yang Feng
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 163-171.
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    This study analyzes whether there exists
    asymmetric relationship between financial openness and economic
    growth for a panel of 55 countries and areas during the ten-year
    period 1996 to 2006. Setting World Bank's Governance Indicators (GI)
    which measures economic and political environment of countries as
    threshold variable, the advanced panel threshold model in Hansen
    (1999) is performed. The result reveals that there exists one
    threshold effect between financial openness and economic growth and
    the estimated threshold value is found to be 0.5896. When the GI of
    an economy lies below the threshold, the estimated coefficient
    between growth and financial openness is -0.0200, which means
    financial openness will hurt growth. While in the higher regime, the
    relationship between growth and financial openness is positive and
    the coefficient is 0.0667. Among the 55 countries and areas, all
    developed countries' GIs are in the higher regime, while more than
    60\% of the developing economies' GIs lie in the lower regime. So
    when developing economies carry out financial openness policy, they
    should better the economic and political environment
    simultaneously.

  • Yang Yiping,Xue Liugen
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 172-182.
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    In this paper, we propose an approach for
    achieving simultaneously variable selection and estimation for the
    linear and nonparametric components in high-dimensional partially
    linear models. We use Dantzig selector, applied to the linear part
    and various derivatives of nonparametric component, to achieve
    sparsity in the linear part and produce nonparametric estimators.
    Non-asymptotic theoretical bounds on the estimator error are
    obtained. The finite sample properties of the proposed approach are
    investigated through a simulation study

  • Luo Chun,Chen Xueping,Zhang Yingshan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 183-193.
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    Through the decomposition of risk function,
    we first get an important indicator for the measure of nonlinearity
    of complex systems which has be traditionally neglected in the
    independently and identically distributed models or linear models.
    Then how to reduce risk is discussed. The we gradually introduce the
    departure degree, the disturbing degree and the
    information-decomposition ratio which constitute the five indicators
    together with the distortion degree and the risk function. Finally,
    we discuss how to control measure indicators of the stability
    center. It is also used to do a try for data analysis based on
    global thinking

  • Yu Xueli,Wu Xianyi
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 194-209.
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    The traditional claims reserving approaches
    are all based on the aggregated data and usually produce inaccurate
    predictions of the reserve because the aggregated data usually
    failed to use all the information of the individual claims. A linear
    prediction model based on the individual claims is proposed in this
    paper, in which only the second order moment of the data is
    required. This method is flexible and simple and hence easy to apply
    in reality. The proposed method is compared with the traditional
    chain ladder method via a simulation study as well, and the
    simulation results illustrate that the proposed approach performs
    well

  • Ding Fangqing,Yao Dingjun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 210-223.
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    This article considers the compound Poisson
    insurance risk model perturbed by diffusion with investment and
    constant dividend barrier. Integro-differential equations for the
    high order moments of the discounted dividend payments prior to ruin
    are derived. Closed form solutions are formulated when the
    individual claim amount distribution is exponential. Some satisfying
    results about the distribution of the aggregate dividend are
    obtained, even for general claim size distributions. We also
    investigate the number and the amount of the dividend streams. Both
    the time of ruin and the deficit at ruin are considered in some
    special cases. Confluent hypergeometric functions play a key role in
    this paper.