15 September 2011, Volume 27 Issue 4
    

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  • Yang Yanzhao,Liu Yanyan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 337-345.
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    The strong stability of linear forms had found many applications in the science and technology. In this
    paper, we investigate the strong stability of linear forms for mixing sequence. By using the termination, Borel-Cantelli
    lemma and properties of mixing sequence, the sufficient
    condition of the strong stability of linear forms for mixing
    sequence is given. Stability of other linear forms in mixing
    sequence are given at the same time

  • Deng Wei,Wu Zhen
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 346-358.
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    The convergence property of the solution
    for finite horizon reflected backward stochastic equations was
    obtained in this paper. The same conclusion was also proved with
    infinite horizon.

  • Li Yan,Han Dong
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 359-368.
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    A reversible Markov process which permits coagulation
    and fragmentation reactions is considered. We analyze the covariance
    of small, medium and large molecules in three distinct stages
    (subcritical, critical and supercritical stages) of polymerization
    and prove that long term correlation only exists in the critical
    stage.

  • Liang Gechun,Ren Xuemin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 369-379.
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    Credit risk theory has become one of the
    cutting edges in modern finance over the past few years. We
    investigate into one of the important issues amongst portfolio's
    credit risk: Copula's applications in correlated default. We
    discover the relationship amongst Copula and other tools for the
    correlated default, such as structural models and reduced form
    models. Additionally, different from Lando (1998), we present
    another method and proof for the calculation of default probability
    of the single firm.

  • Yang Hu,Huang Wenting
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 380-390.
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    Absolute ruin, expected discounted penalty
    function, integro-differential equation, probability of recovery.

  • Wan Zhong,Hu Chaoming,Yin Wei
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 391-398.
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    In this paper, a new model is constructed
    by taking uncertain environment into consideration for the
    bankruptcy risk problems in term life insurance, where the mortality
    rate is regarded as an interval parameter and the net insurance
    policy is a random parameter. Formula for computing the interval
    probability of bankruptcy is obtained, an approximation method owing
    to Poisson distribution is studied. Since some important aspects
    have been taken into consideration in the new formulation, such as
    the accumulating interest of initial reserve, the entry of new
    customers at any time, the design of new grouping fashion and the
    uncertain environment, the result obtained in this paper is more
    practical than the existing models.

  • Xia Yemao,Liu Yingan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 399-409.
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    Mean and covariance structure model is
    widely applied in behavioral, educational, medical, social and
    psychological research. The classic maximum likelihood estimate is
    vulnerable to outliers and distributional deviation. In this paper,
    robust estimate based on minimizing the objective function is
    proposed, and M-ratio test based on the robust deviance is suggested
    to assess the model fit. Empirical results are illustrated by a real
    example.

  • Dong Hailing,Hou Zhenting,Jiang Guochao
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 410-416.
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    By using limit distribution of Markov
    skeleton processes, the article studies homogeneous denumerable
    semi-Markov processes and obtains their limit distribution. When the
    distribution of renewal interval is non-lattice, the result obtained
    in this paper is consistent with that in ,but the
    approaches this article used are Markov skeleton processes
    approaches which differ from .Furthermore, when the
    distribution of renewal interval is lattice, this paper gives the
    result, whereas didn't study this case. Finally, this
    article generalizes the limit distribution of homogeneous
    denumerable semi-Markov processes, and illustrates the result
    through one example.

  • Li Mingliang,Liu Zaiming
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 417-424.
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    In this paper, we primarily study the
    strong law of large numbers and the law of large numbers of some
    special functions for Markov chains in unidirectional infinitely
    Markovian environments, and give some sufficient conditions on the
    jointly Markov chains and the sample function of the jointly Markov
    chains.

  • Du Zhikuo,Zhang Dixin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 425-434.
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    This paper extends Hull-White interest
    rate model to cover cross-currency case. In the extended model we
    discuss valuation of cross-currency Bermudan swaptions. Since the
    closed-form pricing formula is hard to obtain, we apply the Least
    Squared Monte-Carlo approach to find the optimal exercising time.
    Some numerical results with different parameters are presented.

  • LU Zhiping
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 435-443.
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    In this article, we examine the daily
    structure of stock price indices in the major stock markets in
    Asia-Pacific area using fractional integrated techniques. According
    to the long memory characteristics of the data, a particular version
    of Robinson's (1994) test is proposed for testing unit roots and
    non-stationarity in the financial data. The results show that the
    long memory behavior of the stock price indices in this region is
    different but quite similar.