30 April 2014, Volume 30 Issue 2
    

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  • Xu Yajuan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 113-128.
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    In this paper, we study the pricing of
    defaultable bonds and credit default swaps with counterparty risk
    using a contagion model. We present a contagion model of correlated
    defaults in a reduced model. The model assumes the intensities of
    default processes depend on the stochastic interest rate process
    driven by a stochastic differential equation and the default process
    of a counterparty. These are extensions of the models in Jarrow and
    Yu (2001) and Hao and Ye (2011). Moreover, we derive the explicit
    formulae for the pricing of defaultable bonds and credit default
    swap with counterparty risk using the properties of stochastic
    exponentials and make some numerical analysis on the explicit
    formulae.

  • Li Quanlin, Du Ye, Wang Meng, Dai Guirong
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 129-150.
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    The supermarket model is a dynamic randomized
    load balancing scheme for real-time dynamic control of large-scale
    parallel queuing network. It has many important practical applications
    in, for example, computer networks, cloud computing, manufacturing systems
    and transportation networks. In this paper, for the supermarket models
    we consider some important issues, such as, real-time dynamic control
    modes; efficiency comparison; mean-field black hole; Markov changing
    environment; stability; fixed point; system performance analysis.
    At the same time, we also study these important issues through some
    numerical examples, include performance comparison, and efficiency
    analysis for advantages and disadvantages among the supermarket
    models with either customers joining the shortest queue, or customers
    joining any queue randomly, or customers joining the longest queue.
    Further, we consider a more general supermarket model under an Markov
    changing environment, and provide performance evaluation for the
    supermarket model under an Markov changing environment.

  • Li Haibin, Tian Ruiqin, Li Gaorong
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 151-168.
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    In this paper, we focus on the estimation
    for the marginal semiparametric partially linear models with longitudinal
    data when some covariates are measured with additive errors. We first
    approximate the nonparametric part of the model based on the B-splines
    and a new bias-corrected estimation procedure is proposed based on the
    quadratic inference functions (QIF). Under some regularity conditions,
    we show that the QIF estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal.
    Extensive simulation studies and an application are conducted to examine
    the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure.

  • Huang Jing, Guo Shuixia
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 169-180.
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    This paper studies significant differences
    in functional connectivity between schizophrenia patients and healthy
    controls by different methods. Firstly, three different brain functional
    networks are constructed by Pearson correlation coefficient, partial
    correlation coefficient and wavelet correlation coefficient, and then
    the paper uses risk difference to find out those significant differences.
    Finally, a comparative analysis is made. The result shows that common
    and abnormal connectivity exists in different networks where functional
    connectivity between the precuneus and posterior cingulate cortex weakens
    significantly among schizophrenia patients compared with controls. And
    more notably, the sign of some statistic appears in some significant
    functional connectivity is completely contrary. That is to say, as
    opposed to controls this functional connectivity in patients is both
    strengthened and weakened simultaneously. It shows that statistical
    test makes the results more persuasive as searching for abnormal
    functional connectivity in brain networks in terms of statistics.

  • Chen Yuping, Bai Yang
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 181-194.
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    In this article, we propose an efficient
    method to identify an informative correlation structure for
    longitudinal data based on varying-coefficient models and the
    proposed approach yields a more efficient estimator for the
    coefficient curves. Simulation and real data example show that the
    proposed method has efficiency in selecting and estimating the true
    correlation structure in finite samples and the estimation
    efficiency of the coefficient curves is improved by using the
    selected correlation structure in the estimation procedure.

  • Wu Yongfeng
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 195-205.
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    The author discusses the complete moment
    convergence for weighted sums of arrays of -mixing random
    variables. The obtained results in this paper improve the
    corresponding ones of Qiu (2011).

  • Guo Mingming, Wu Shujin, Zhu Xiaoyu
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 206-212.
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    Binomial model is one of widely used models,
    and its parameters have a great influence on option pricing. In this
    paper, a new parameter estimation is given for binomial model, which
    overcomes the fault of usual methods to estimate parameters of
    binomial models, especially, eliminate the influence of subjective
    probability.

  • Gao Caiwen, Zhu Xiaolin, Zeng Linrui
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 213-222.
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    Growth curve model is a general multivariable
    linear model. It plays an important role in modern statistics. In this
    paper, firstly, we define the penalized least squares for growth curve
    model, after transforming it by the Potthoff-Roy transformation. By
    using adaptive LASSO we can get corresponding estimation, as well as
    achieve the variable selection. Then, the penalized least squares
    estimation of the growth curve model is presented with a unified expression
    of approximate estimation. In addition, we discuss the properties of
    the penalized least squares estimations of the growth curve model,
    which is transformed by Potthoff-Roy transformation, and the properties,
    which are Oracle properties, are proved in this paper. By using the
    criteria to measure estimation and variable selection, we compare
    several penalized least squares estimations and the effect of variable
    selection of different penalty functions. The result shows that the
    adaptive LASSO performs better in parameter estimation and variable
    selection. Besides, we compare different transformations. Results
    indicate that Potthoff-Roy transformation performs better than matrix
    stacking transformation when considering variable selection and
    parameter estimation comprehensively.

  • CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 223-224.
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