29 August 2014, Volume 30 Issue 4
    

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  • Guo Jingjun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(4): 337-344.
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    In this paper, the existence and chaos decomposition
    of local time of fractional Brownian motion are studied within the canonical
    framework of white noise analysis. We prove that the local time of -dimensional
    fractional Brownian motion with 1-parameter is a Hida distribution through white
    noise approach. Under some conditions, it exists in . Moreover, the
    Wiener-Ito chaos decomposition of it is also given in terms of Hermite
    polynomials. Finally, similar results of -dimensional fractional Brownian
    motion with -parameter are also obtained. We popularize some results in
    Bakun (2000) for the case of Brownian motion.

  • Zhang Zhihua
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(4): 345-352.
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    In this paper, the author discusses the  convergence
    for weighted sums of sequences of -mixing random variables under -th
    uniform integrability, which is the same as that in the independent case.

  • Yu Minxiu, Fei Weiyin, Xia Dengfeng
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(4): 353-371.
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    This paper considers the problem of maximizing expected
    utility from consumption and terminal wealth under model uncertainty for a general
    semimartingale market, where the agent with an initial capital and a random endowment
    can invest. To find a solution to the investment problem we use the martingale method.
    We first prove that under appropriate assumptions a unique solution to the investment
    problem exists. Then we deduce that the value functions of primal problem and dual
    problem are convex conjugate functions. Furthermore we consider a diffusion-jump-model
    where the coefficients depend on the state of a Markov chain and the investor is
    ambiguity to the intensity of the underlying Poisson process. Finally, for an agent
    with the logarithmic utility function, we use the stochastic control method to derive
    the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellmann (HJB) equation. And the solution to this HJB equation can
    be determined numerically. We also show how thereby the optimal investment strategy
    can be computed.

  • Yang Xingli, Wang Yu, Wang Ruibo, Li Jihong
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(4): 372-380.
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    This paper studies the variance of blocked 
    cross-validation estimator of the prediction error recently proposed in the
    literature. A more accuracy representation of the variance is provided and the
    main theorem shows that there exists no universal (valid under all distributions)
    unbiased estimator of the variance.

  • Ding Jianhua, Zhang Zhongzhan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(4): 381-397.
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    In this paper, a Bernstein-polynomial-based likelihood
    method is proposed for the partially linear model under monotonicity constraints.
    Monotone Bernstein polynomials are employed to approximate the monotone
    nonparametric function in the model. The estimator of the regression parameter
    is shown to be asymptotically normal and efficient, and the rate of convergence
    of the estimator of the nonparametric component is established, which could be
    the optimal under the smooth assumptions. A simulation study and a real data
    analysis are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed
    method.

  • Zhou Yun, Zhu Dongjin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(4): 398-414.
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    This mansuscript focuses on a kind of two-dimensional
    risk model with stochastic premium income and the model allows for dependence
    between premiums and claims. By Laplace transforms, we prove that the model
    proposed in this paper can be reduced into a kind of risk model with stochastic
    premium incomes, and the premium income is independent of the claim process.
    When the individual claims are the "light-tailed" case, an upper bound for
    ruin probability is derived by martingale approach. When the claims belong to
    a kind of heavy-tailed distribution, the asymptotic estimation for ruin
    probability is given when the initial surplus tends to infinity.

  • Ding Bangjun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(4): 415-422.
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    The problem of estimating the scale parameter in the
    Pareto distribution from interval censored observations is considered. Four kinds of
    estimators, including the maximum likelihood estimator and least square estimator,
    are evaluated. The variance of them are compared, and the numerical simulation results
    is also given.

  • Xia Yemao, Liu Yingan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(4): 423-438.
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    To down-weight the influence of the distributional
    deviations and outliers, in this paper, we carry out robust Bayesian analysis
    for general factor analytic model combined with normal scale mixture model.
    Gibbs sampler is used to draw random observations from the posterior.
    Statistical inferences are carried out based on the empirical distribution
    of these observations. Two real data sets are analyzed to illustrate the
    effectiveness of the proposed method.

  • Zhao Jine, Li Ming, He Shuhong
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(4): 439-448.
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    In this paper, the risk model under constant dividend
    barrier strategy is studied, in which the premium income follows a compound
    Poisson process and the arrival of the claims is a p-thinning process of the
    premium arrival process. The integral equations with boundary conditions for
    the expected discounted aggregate dividend payments and the expected discounted
    penalty function until ruin are derived. In addition, the explicit expressions
    for the Laplace transform of the ruin time and the expected aggregate discounted
    dividend payments until ruin are given when the individual stochastic premium
    amount and claim amount are exponentially distributed. Finally, the optimal
    barrier is presented under the condition of maximizing the expectation of the
    difference between discounted aggregate dividends until ruin and the deficit at ruin.