31 August 2015, Volume 31 Issue 4
    

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  • Xiao Xiaoyong, Yin Hongwei
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(4): 337-346.
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    In this paper, we consider the speed of convergence of the threshold
    version of bipower variation for a semimartingale, which is driven by a standard Brownian
    motion and a pure jump Levy process with possibly infinite activity of the small jumps.

  • Gai Yujie, Zhang Zhanli, Zhang Jun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(4): 347-356.
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    Bridge regression, a special family of penalized regressions
    of a penalty function  with , has been studied in many
    literatures. In this paper, we provide some theoretical results of how the shrinkage
    rule changing with  under two settings:  and ,
    respectively. Simulation results are conducted to evaluate the performance of the
    proposed method.

  • Jia Zhaoli, Zhang Fan, Zhang Shuguang
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(4): 357-366.
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    In this paper, it is assumed that the underlying is a Markov
    skeleton process (abbreviated MSP): this process can be better reflecting the instability
    of the financial market. Using the properties of Markov skeleton process, the characteristic
    function of the price process is given, combined with fast Fourier transform (FFT) method,
    the pricing formula of derivatives under the Markov skeleton process is given. The results
    of this paper can be applied to price other financial derivatives, and it enriching the
    pricing theory of financial derivatives.

  • Fei Shilong, Bai Yaoqian
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(4): 367-374.
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    The periods of states for Markov chains in a random environment
    are introduced and some properties about periods are investigated. An open problem
    (Orey, 1991; Problem 1.3.3) is studied under the assumption that states have periods.

  • Zhang Yuanyuan, Wang Wensheng
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(4): 375-383.
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    This study has considered the compound Poisson risk model
    perturbed by diffusion with constant interest and obtained an integral-differential
    equation for the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function. Asymptotic expression for
    the ultimate ruin probability also derived across the study.

  • CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(4): 384-394.
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    In this paper, the concept of renewal-geometry process is put
    forward based on the idea of stage deterioration of system. The definitions of
    renewal-geometry function, the quasi renewal-geometry age and quasi residual
    renewal-geometry life for the new stochastic process are given. The related properties
    of renewal-geometry process are studied. Finally, the related theory results are
    simulated by an example.

  • Jin Yunguo, Zhong Shouming
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(4): 395-410.
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    In this paper, we present an approach of changing probability
    measures associated with numeraire changes to the pricing of catastrophe event (CAT) derivatives.
    We assume that the underlying asset and a discounted zero-coupon bond follow
    a stochastic process, respectively. We obtain explicit closed form formulae that permit
    the interest rate to be random. We shall see that sometimes it is convenient to change
    the numeraire because of modeling considerations as well. Furthermore, we show that,
    for compound Poisson losses, sometimes a continuum of jump sizes can be replaced by
    finitely many jump sizes. Therefore, sometimes we can explore further applications of
    the closed-form formulae beyond the case that the compound Poisson losses are finitely
    many jump sizes. Finally, numerical experiments demonstrate how financial risks and
    catastrophic risks affect the price of double trigger put option.

  • Li Quanlin, Ding Yuanyuan, Yang Feifei
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(4): 411-431.
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    The supermarket model has been an important mathematical tool
    in the study of resource management in large-scale networks by means of some advantages,
    such as, simple operations, quick reaction, real-time management and control and so on.
    It is widely applied in internet of things, cloud computing, cloud manufacturing, big
    data, transportation, health care and other important practical fields. Up to now,
    analysis of the asymmetric supermarket models is an increasingly interesting topic in
    this area.
      In this paper, we analyze an asymmetric supermarket model. Because the M
    servers are different from each other, the routine selection policies of each customer
    become to have a complex structure, where not only are the routine selection policies
    related to the different queue lengths and the different service speeds among the M
    servers, but they are also related to the customer's preference for the M servers.
    For this, we set up several useful routine selection policies in terms of the
    decision-making methods. Based on this, we provide the Markov reward processes of the
    asymmetric supermarket model and establish the associated functional reward equations,
    give a useful value iterative algorithm for solving the functional reward equations,
    obtain a criterion of performance evaluation in the asymmetric supermarket model through
    a double-direction optimization, and show that the sequence of iterative reward functions
    is monotone and the value iterative algorithm is convergent. This paper provides new
    and useful highlight on understanding how the asymmetric supermarket model is applied
    to resource management and control in large-scale networks both from the objective
    conditions and from the subjective behavior. At the same time, the methodology and main
    results of this paper give some basic theory and techniques in the study of asymmetric
    supermarket models for the first time.

  • Ma Yunyan, Kou Guangjie
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(4): 432-448.
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    The covariate-adjusted regression model was initially proposed for
    the situations where both the predictors and the response variables are not directly observed,
    but are distorted by some common observable covariates. In this paper, we investigate a
    covariate-adjusted nonparametric regression (CANR) model and consider the proposed model on
    time series setting. We develop a two-step estimation procedure to estimate the regression
    function. The asymptotic property of the proposed estimation is investigated under the
    -mixing conditions. Both the real data and simulated examples are provided for
    illustration.