30 June 2016, Volume 32 Issue 4
    

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  • LI Yinghua, QIN Yongsong
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2016, 32(4): 331-340.
    Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( ) Knowledge map Save

    Under the  mixing random errors, we make the
    empirical likelihood (EL) inference for nonparametric regression models with
    fixed designs and missing responses. Based on the `complete sample' after
    nonparametric regression imputation, we show that the EL ratio statistic of the
    nonparametric regression function is asymptotically $\chi^2$-type distributed,
    which is used to obtain EL-based confidence intervals for the nonparametric
    regression function.

  • WANG Huaming
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2016, 32(4): 341-348.
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    Let  be a correlated random walk in random
    environment. For the sub-linear regime, that is, almost surely
     but ,
    we show that there is $0<s<1$, such that almost surely
    , for all s'>s. This result characterizes
    the slowdown property of the walk.

  • YANG Qun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2016, 32(4): 349-360.
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    This paper deals with reliability inference results in $R=\pr(Y<X)$
    when $X$ and $Y$ are independently generalized half logistic distributed random variables.
    The maximum likelihood estimator and Bayesian estimator of $R$ are obtained. Exact and
    asymptotic confidence intervals are also discussed. Testing of the reliability based
    on exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator is discussed. Two different
    estimators are compared using simulations and one data analysis has been performed for
    illustrative purposes.

  • article
  • XIE Xiaoyi, HU Xijian, ZHANG Huiguo, HE Lunzhi
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2016, 32(4): 361-375.
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    In this paper, we construct a generalized spatial panel data model
    with two-way error components where the spatial correlation also exist in the individual
    effects. Based on the methods of the generalized moment estimate and the two-step least
    square estimate, we look for the best instrumental variable, fit generalized moments and
    the weighted matrix to discuss the estimator of the parameters, and prove the consistent
    of the estimators. Monte Carlo experiments show that the weighted generalized moment
    estimators are better than the unweighted generalized moment estimators, and the estimate
    effect of feasible generalized two stages least squares estimators is good.

  • Maiwuludai, WANG Wenyuan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2016, 32(4): 376-392.
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    For a financial or insurance entity, the problem of finding the
    optimal dividend distribution strategy and optimal firm value function is a widely discussed
    topic. In the present paper, it is assumed that the firm faces two types of liquidity risks:
    a Brownian risk and a Poisson risk. The firm can control the time and amount of dividends
    paid out to shareholders. By sufficiently taking into account the safety of the company,
    bankruptcy is said to take place at time $t$ if the cash reserve of the firm runs below
    the linear barrier b+kt (not zero), see 1. We deal with the problem of maximizing
    the expected total discounted dividends paid out until bankruptcy. The optimal dividend
    return (or, firm value) function is identified as the classical solution of the associated
    Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation where a second-order differential-integro equation
    is involved. By solving the corresponding HJB equation, the analytical solution of the
    optimal firm value function is obtained, the optimal dividend strategy is also characterized,
    which is of linear barrier type: at time t the firm keeps cash inside when the cash
    reserves level is less than a critical linear barrier  and pays cash in excess of
    this linear barrier as dividends.

  • YUAN Liangliang, SONG Lixin, FENG Jinghai
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2016, 32(4): 393-407.
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    In this paper, precise large deviations of nonnegative,
    non-identical distributions and negatively associated random variables are investigated.
    Under certain conditions, the lower bound of the precise large deviations for the
    non-random sum is solved and the uniformly asymptotic results for the corresponding
    random sum are obtained. At the same time, we deeply discussed the compound renewal
    risk model, in which we found that the compound renewal risk model can be equivalent
    to renewal risk model under certain conditions. The relative research results of
    precise large deviations are applied to the more practical compound renewal risk model,
    and the theoretical and practical values are verified. In addition, this paper also
    shows that the impact of this dependency relationship between random variables to
    precise large deviations of the final result is not significant.

  • DENG Wenli, LU Wenpei, LIAO Jun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2016, 32(4): 408-418.
    Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( ) Knowledge map Save

    In survival analysis, most existing approaches for analysing
    right-censored failure time data assume that the censoring time is independent of the
    failure time. However, investigators often face problems involving dependent censoring,
    i.e., failure time and censoring time are possibly dependent and they may be censored
    one another, especially in clinical trials. Without accounting for such dependence,
    survival distributions cannot be estimated consistently. Numerous attempts to model
    this dependence have been made. Among them, copula models are of particular interest
    because of their simple structure. Proportional hazard model analysis for informative
    right-censored data has been discussed in this paper. An Archimedean copula is assumed
    for the joint distribution function of failure time and censoring time variables. Under
    the conditions of identifiability of the parameter of the Archimedean copula, the maximum
    likelihood estimators of the parameter of Archimedean copula, the parameters and the
    cumulative hazard function of PH model are worked out. Extensive simulation studies show
    that the feasibility of the proposed method and the consistency of the estimators.

  • ZHANG Hui, XU Ancha
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2016, 32(4): 419-432.
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    Kundu and Gupta proposed to use the importance sampling
    method to compute the Bayesian estimation of the unknown parameters of the Marshall-Olkin
    bivariate Weibull distribution. However, we find that the performance of the importance
    sampling method becomes worse as the sample size gets larger. In this paper, we introduce
    latent variables to simplify the likelihood function, and use MCMC algorithm to estimate
    the unknown parameters. Numerical simulations are carried out to assess the performance
    of the proposed method by comparing with the maximum likelihood estimation, and we find
    that the Bayesian estimates perform better even for the case of small sample size. A real
    data is also analyzed for illustrative purpose.

  • CHENG Huihui, MAO Yonghua
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2016, 32(4): 433-440.
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    For the infinite Jackson network, assume that the net input
    rates are greater than the service rates for some nodes. Via solving the new throughput
    equation, the stochastic comparable processes are obtained by coupling method, and
    furthermore the limits for the queueing length in all nodes are also obtained. Despite
    the whole network is non-ergodic, it is possible to get the maximal ergodic subnetwork.