07 July 2017, Volume 33 Issue 3
    

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  • YE Peng; ZHOU XiuQing
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2017, 33(3): 221-231. https://doi.org/10.3969
    Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( ) Knowledge map Save

    In this paper, linear regression models with contaminated data are considered. Estimation methods for the regression parameters based on least absolute deviations (LAD) are proposed, and properties of consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed method are proved under some regular conditions. Simulations are done to assess the properties of the method when sample size is small, and simulation results show that the methods works well.

  • LIN Lu, SHEN Wei, ZHANG Yan, LIANG LuFang, ZHANG ChuanGang
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2017, 33(3): 232-246. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2017.03.002
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    The relationship between futures and spot is still
    an important issue in academic communities and supervisory departments. In
    this paper, the Granger Causality Test is extended into quantile regression
    and then the relationship between futures and spot is investigated at
    different quantile positions. Note that under the model with differential
    data, different quantile positions are related to the corresponding financial
    environments. Consequently, a market-dependent casuality between futures and
    spot is established, by which we can study the relationship more deeply and
    comprehensively. The main points of view obtained in this paper are what
    follows: 1. The relationship between futures and spot is strongly related
    to the financial environments, besides the features of futures and spot;
    2. Under the normal and stable financial markets, there is casuality one
    another, but the relationship will be abnormal under extremal financial
    conditions, the common relationship between futures and spot is masked by
    other financial factors; 3. If the casuality was seen as a normal fact
    logically, then the abnormal relationship should indicate a bad or extremal
    financial environment, which provides supervisory departments with a warning
    signal.

  • LI XiuQiong, CHEN ShaoGang
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2017, 33(3): 247-256. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2017.03.003
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    This paper establish a first passage time model based
    on the Merton's structural model by using the method of geometric Brownian
    motion. In this paper, we consider the accounting noise and historical default
    record and then introduce a new incomplete information hypothesis. Besides,
    we introduce the stock's liquidity value into the model, and apply its method
    measurement which based on Merton's structural model to the first passage
    time model to obtain the endogenous default boundary. Based on the incomplete
    information, the conditional default probability is derived by using the
    default boundary. And at the last of this passage, we analysis the effect
    of the correlation between stock's price and company assets on the default
    probability.

  • KONG LingTao, DAI HongShuai
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2017, 33(3): 257-266. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2017.03.004
    Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( ) Knowledge map Save
    Let   be a sequence of i.i.d. random
    variables with absolutely continuous distribution function. Denote the record
    times and the associated counting process of by
    and , respectively. In this paper, we
    obtain the exact asymptotics in complete moment convergence of
    and .
  • WANG WenYuan, XIAO LiQun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2017, 33(3): 267-284. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2017.03.005
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    Motivated by [1] and [2], we study in this
    paper the optimal (from the insurer's point of view) reinsurance problem when
    risk is measured by a general risk measure, namely the GlueVaR distortion risk
    measures which is firstly proposed by [3].Suppose an insurer is exposed
    to the risk  and decides to buy a reinsurance contract written on the total
    claim amounts basis, i.e. the reinsurer covers  and the cedent covers
    . In addition, the insurer is obligated to compensate the reinsurer
    for undertaking the risk by paying the reinsurance premium, 
    ( is the safety loading), under the expectation premium principle. Based
    on a technique used in [2], this paper derives the optimal ceded loss
    functions in a class of increasing convex ceded loss functions. It turns out
    that the optimal ceded loss function is of stop-loss type.

  • CHENG GongPin, FAN Kun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2017, 33(3): 285-296. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2017.03.006
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    This paper investigates the pricing of CatEPuts under
    a Markovian regime-switching jump-diffusion model. The parameters of this model,
    including the risk-free interest rate, the appreciation rate and the volatility
    of the clients' equity, are modulated by a continuous-time, finite-state, observable
    Markov chain. An equivalent martingale measure is selected by employing the
    regime-switching Esscher transform. The fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique
    is applied to price the CatEPuts. In a two-state Markov chain case, numerical
    example is presented to illustrate the practical implementation of the model.

  • HAN Min, LIU YaXiang
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2017, 33(3): 297-309. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2017.03.007
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    This paper concerns stochastic differential equations
    driven by G-Brownian motion under non-Lipschitz condition which is a much weaker
    condition with a wider range of applications. Stochastic averaging is established
    for such non-Lipschitz SDEs where an averaged system is presented to replace the
    original one in the sense of mean square. An example is presented to illustrate
    the averaging principle.

  • ZENG LinRui, TANG YinCai, DOU Wen
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2017, 33(3): 310-316. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2017.03.008
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    Frechet distribution is an important life distribution.
    In this paper, approximated maximum likelihood estimator for two parameter Frechet
    distribution under type II censoring is investigated. And the feasibility of this
    method is obtained through the Monto-Carlo simulation.

  • CHENG MeiFang, FANG LongXiang, YANG Fang
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2017, 33(3): 317-330. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2017.03.009
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    In this paper, we compare the smallest order statistics
    arising from multiple-outlier models when the numbers of independent and
    identically distributed random variables are different. Let  and
    denote the smallest order statistics among  and ,
    respectively, where and . We then prove that $
    and  are ordered in terms of the usual stochastic order,
    hazard rate order and likelihood ratio order under the majorization relationship
    between  and .