胡志明, 奚欢, 王黎明. 混合序列的VaR分布核估计及其应用[J]. 应用概率统计, 2018, 34(2): 201-212. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2018.02.008
引用本文: 胡志明, 奚欢, 王黎明. 混合序列的VaR分布核估计及其应用[J]. 应用概率统计, 2018, 34(2): 201-212. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2018.02.008
HU ZhiMin, XI Huan, HUANG MingHui. Distribution Kernel Estimator of VaR and Its Applications for Mixing Sequences[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2018, 34(2): 201-212. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2018.02.008
Citation: HU ZhiMin, XI Huan, HUANG MingHui. Distribution Kernel Estimator of VaR and Its Applications for Mixing Sequences[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2018, 34(2): 201-212. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2018.02.008

混合序列的VaR分布核估计及其应用

Distribution Kernel Estimator of VaR and Its Applications for Mixing Sequences

  • 摘要: 本文首先在rho,混合相依序列情形下,研究了VaR分布核估计\nu_p,h的均方误差和最优窗宽,得到的最优窗宽使得均方误差MSE\nu_p,h)达到最小.利用拉普拉斯分布密度函数代替窗宽表达式中的密度函数,采用插值的方法计算最优窗宽的具体值. 借助所得到最优窗宽进行数值模拟,结果显示, VaR分布核估计值与次序统计量估计值相比, 分布核估计的效果更好.实证结果表明深证B股指数的风险明显大于上证A股指数.

     

    Abstract: In the situation of \rho-mixing dependent sequences, this paper studied the mean square error and the optimal bandwidth of distribution kernel estimator nu_p,h of VaR. And the optimal bandwidth minimized the mean square error. The density function of Laplace distribution is used in the calculation of bandwidth and we adopt the method of interpolation to compute specific value of bandwidth in this paper. According to the numerical simulations, the distribution kernel estimator is more accurate by comparing the performance of VaR distribution kernel estimation with a common order statistic. Finally, Shangzheng A-share index and Shenzheng B-share index are chosen for an empirical research, which concludes that the risk of the latter is significantly higher than that of the former.

     

/

返回文章
返回