王正武, 温利民, 刘志强. 风险度量的贝叶斯估计及其统计分析[J]. 应用概率统计, 2019, 35(3): 249-262. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2019.03.003
引用本文: 王正武, 温利民, 刘志强. 风险度量的贝叶斯估计及其统计分析[J]. 应用概率统计, 2019, 35(3): 249-262. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2019.03.003
WANG Zhengwu, WEN Limin, LIU Zhiqiang. Bayesian Estimation and Statistical Analysis of Risk Measurements[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2019, 35(3): 249-262. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2019.03.003
Citation: WANG Zhengwu, WEN Limin, LIU Zhiqiang. Bayesian Estimation and Statistical Analysis of Risk Measurements[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2019, 35(3): 249-262. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2019.03.003

风险度量的贝叶斯估计及其统计分析

Bayesian Estimation and Statistical Analysis of Risk Measurements

  • 摘要: 建立了贝叶斯模型,研究了在险价值及其相关风险度量的关系,给出了在险价值、期望短缺、尾条件期望、条件在险价值等风险度量的计算方法.进而研究了风险度量的贝叶斯估计和贝叶斯预测,并在指数风险模型中证明了估计的相合性和渐近正态性,最后利用数值模拟的方法验证了不同样本下估计的收敛速度.

     

    Abstract: The Bayesian model are established for the VaR and related risk measurements. The relationship between VaR and other risk measurements including expect shortfall, tail condition expectation and conditional value at risk are discussed. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimates and Bayesian predictors of these risk measurement are derived. Thirdly, the consistency and asymptotic normality in the exponential risk model are proved. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to verify the convergence rate under different sample sizes.

     

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