宋鹏飞, 陈灿贻, 楼元, 姜慧, 李卫民, 朱利平. 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情联防联控策略评价与开放离鄂通道影响的预测[J]. 应用概率统计, 2020, 36(3): 321-330. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2020.03.007
引用本文: 宋鹏飞, 陈灿贻, 楼元, 姜慧, 李卫民, 朱利平. 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情联防联控策略评价与开放离鄂通道影响的预测[J]. 应用概率统计, 2020, 36(3): 321-330. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2020.03.007
SONG Pengfei, CHEN Canyi, LOU Yuan, JIANG Hui, LI Weimin, ZHU Liping. Assessing Effectiveness of Integrated Strategies for Preventing and Controlling the Outbreak of COVID-19, and Predicting Impact of Opening Exit Channels to Leave Hubei Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2020, 36(3): 321-330. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2020.03.007
Citation: SONG Pengfei, CHEN Canyi, LOU Yuan, JIANG Hui, LI Weimin, ZHU Liping. Assessing Effectiveness of Integrated Strategies for Preventing and Controlling the Outbreak of COVID-19, and Predicting Impact of Opening Exit Channels to Leave Hubei Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2020, 36(3): 321-330. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2020.03.007

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情联防联控策略评价与开放离鄂通道影响的预测

Assessing Effectiveness of Integrated Strategies for Preventing and Controlling the Outbreak of COVID-19, and Predicting Impact of Opening Exit Channels to Leave Hubei Province

  • 摘要: 我们利用传播动力学模型, 基于国家卫健委公布的确诊人数、痊愈人数和因病死亡人数, 得到如下三个结论. 1、中国政府采取的联防联控机制已经对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控起到了显著效果.湖北省的基本再生数从2月3日之前的3.86(即一个感染者在感染周期内将导致3.86人感染)逐渐降为2月8日之后的0.42; 浙江、广东、河南、湖南、江西、安徽、北京和上海等六省二市的基本再生数从1月30日之前的3.68降为2月4日之后的0.18.2、无症状感染者和有症状感染者在确诊前的感染力接近.型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控的难点在于隔离并及时收治无症状感染者.湖北省无症状感染者人数从2月5日的最高点(23,068人)逐步回落到2月29日的2,935人, 湖北省的疫情防控形势依然非常严峻; 浙江、广东、河南、湖南、江西、安徽、北京和上海六省二市无症状感染者人数在2月29日已经回落至5\sim21人之间, 这些地区新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情已经得到了初步控制. 3、选择放松离鄂通道交通管制措施的时机需要非常谨慎. 传播动力学模型预测,如果在5月中旬或6月中旬放松离鄂通道交通管制措施,允许每天从湖北输入10万无症状人群到浙江、广东、河南、湖南、江西、安徽、北京和上海等六省二市, 则一个半月后输入地感染人数将累计增加5.5人或1.3人.但如果选择在3月中旬或4月中旬放松离鄂通道交通管制措施,一个半月以后输入地感染人数将累计增加93人或22人.

     

    Abstract: Using the transmission dynamics model, the number of confirmed cases, cured cases and dead cases announced by the National Health Commission, we got the following three conclusions: First, the joint prevention and control mechanism adopted by the Chinese government has played a very significant role in the prevention and control of Corona virus diseases 2019 (COVID-19). The basic regeneration number (R_0) in Hubei province has gradually decreased from 3.86 before February 3 to 0.42 after February 8; and R_0 of Zhejiang province, Guangdong province, Henan province, Hunan province, Jiangxi province, Anhui province, Beijing city and Shanghai city (six provinces and two cities) decreased from 3.68 before January 30 to 0.18 after February 4. Second, the infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases was almost the same before confirmed diagnosis. The difficulty in the prevention and control of the COVID-19 lies in the isolation and timely treatment of asymptomatic cases. Although the number of asymptomatic cases in Hubei province has gradually dropped from 23,068 to 2,935 on February 29, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in Hubei province remains very grim. The number of asymptomatic cases in six provinces and two cities has fallen to between 5 and 21 on February 29, and the epidemic of COVID-19 in these regions has been effectively controlled. Third, selecting the time to relax traffic control measure in Hubei province requires caution. The transmission dynamic model predicts that if the traffic control measures are lifted in mid-May or mid-June, and approximately 100,000 asymptomatic cases are allowed to be imported from Hubei province to six provinces and two cities, the cumulative number of infected people will increase by 5.5 or 1.3 after 1.5 months. However, if the traffic control measures are lifted in mid-March or mid-April, the cumulative number of infected people will increase by 93 or 22 after 1.5 months.

     

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