郑明亮. Weibull分布下步进应力加速寿命试验方案的最优稳健设计[J]. 应用概率统计, 2020, 36(6): 619-626. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2020.06.005
引用本文: 郑明亮. Weibull分布下步进应力加速寿命试验方案的最优稳健设计[J]. 应用概率统计, 2020, 36(6): 619-626. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2020.06.005
ZHENG Mingliang. Optimal Robust Design of Step Stress Accelerated Life Test Scheme under Weibull Distribution[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2020, 36(6): 619-626. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2020.06.005
Citation: ZHENG Mingliang. Optimal Robust Design of Step Stress Accelerated Life Test Scheme under Weibull Distribution[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2020, 36(6): 619-626. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2020.06.005

Weibull分布下步进应力加速寿命试验方案的最优稳健设计

Optimal Robust Design of Step Stress Accelerated Life Test Scheme under Weibull Distribution

  • 摘要: 针对传统加速寿命试验方案优化设计中忽略了模型参数预先粗略值的波动对试验方案稳定性的影响, 本文在先验寿命试验信息的基础上,以正常工作应力水平下产品p分位数寿命估计值的渐近方差的均值和方差同时最小为目标, 以各试验应力水平和应力截尾时间为设计变量,应用极大似然估计理论和Nelson累积失效原理, 建立含不确定性模型参数的Weibull分布下步进应力加速寿命试验方案最优稳健设计数学模型.对电连接器步进应力加速寿命试验方案最优稳健设计的结果表明,与文献中的步进应力试验方案优化设计相比,在中位数寿命估计值渐近方差数值大小基本持平情况下,最优稳健设计方案对模型参数不确定性不敏感. 与恒定加速寿命试验优化方案相比,在试验数据的统计精度基本持平下, 所需的样本数量可减少~1/5,试验的耗费时间可缩短约1/4.

     

    Abstract: The traditional accelerated life test scheme is necessary to give the rough values of some model parameters in advance, but the influence of fluctuation on the stability of test scheme is irregulared. Based on the prior life test information, this paper aims to minimize the mean and variance of asymptotic variance of p-quantile life estimate under normal test stress level, using maximum likelihood estimation theory and Nelson cumulative failure principle, the optimal robust design mathematical model of step stress accelerated life test scheme with uncertainty parameters under Weibull distribution is established. The results of optimal robust design of step stress accelerated life test scheme for electrical connectors show that: comparing with the optimal design of step stress test scheme in the literature, the optimal robust design scheme is not sensitive to the uncertainty of model parameters when the asymptotic variance of median life estimate is basically the same; Comparing with the optimal design of constant accelerated life test scheme, when the statistical accuracy of test data is basically the same, the number of samples required can be reduced by 1/5, and the test time can be reduced by about 1/4.

     

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