薄立军, 张婷婷. 基于平均场博弈的新冠肺炎最优防控力度切换策略[J]. 应用概率统计, 2021, 37(3): 274-290. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2021.03.004
引用本文: 薄立军, 张婷婷. 基于平均场博弈的新冠肺炎最优防控力度切换策略[J]. 应用概率统计, 2021, 37(3): 274-290. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2021.03.004
BO Lijun, ZHANG Tingting. The Optimal MFG Switching Strategy of Prevention Efforts for COVID-19[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2021, 37(3): 274-290. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2021.03.004
Citation: BO Lijun, ZHANG Tingting. The Optimal MFG Switching Strategy of Prevention Efforts for COVID-19[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2021, 37(3): 274-290. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2021.03.004

基于平均场博弈的新冠肺炎最优防控力度切换策略

The Optimal MFG Switching Strategy of Prevention Efforts for COVID-19

  • 摘要: 本文以新冠肺炎(COVID-19)在美国各州感染人数的公开数据为例, 提出新冠肺炎大流行期的多地区随机动态传染模型.为解决何时``开放''或``限制''经济社会活动的问题,本文建立基于平均场交互的期望效用最大化的多地区最优防控切换Nash均衡策略.随后, 考虑地区个数为无穷时对应的代表性地区感染人数模型和最优防控切换问题,证明其为有限地区情形Nash均衡的极限. 最后,通过比较及分析不同状态下的最优切换边界,我们对何时及如何调整防控力度给出了具体的建议.

     

    Abstract: By the empirical analysis of the open data on COVID-19 in the America, this paper proposes a stochastic dynamic infection model for the regions in America during the pandemic period of COVID-19. To solve when to ``open'' or ``restrict'' the economic and social activities, we construct a multi-regional optimal prevention and control switching Nash equilibrium strategy based on maximizing the expected utility with mean-field interactions. Then, we consider the infection population model for the representative region and solve the corresponding optimal prevention and control switching strategy under the infinite number of regions. Meanwhile, we prove that this strategy is an \epsilon-Nash equilibrium for finite regions when the number of regions tends to infinity. By comparing and analyzing the optimal switching boundaries under different process states, we will give specific suggestions on when and how to adjust the prevention efforts.

     

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