孙蕾, 朱宇玙. 中国股票市场对商业银行的风险溢出效应研究[J]. 应用概率统计, 2022, 38(2): 285-302. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2022.02.008
引用本文: 孙蕾, 朱宇玙. 中国股票市场对商业银行的风险溢出效应研究[J]. 应用概率统计, 2022, 38(2): 285-302. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2022.02.008
SUN Lei, ZHU Yuyu. Research on the Risk Spillover Effects of Stock Market on Commercial Banks in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2022, 38(2): 285-302. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2022.02.008
Citation: SUN Lei, ZHU Yuyu. Research on the Risk Spillover Effects of Stock Market on Commercial Banks in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2022, 38(2): 285-302. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2022.02.008

中国股票市场对商业银行的风险溢出效应研究

Research on the Risk Spillover Effects of Stock Market on Commercial Banks in China

  • 摘要: 本文从一个新颖的角度分析股票市场对商业银行的风险溢出效应. 首先用Granger因果模型验证股票市场和商业银行之间的关系,再用基于分位数回归的CoVaR模型(条件在险价值模型)量化股市对商业银行的风险溢出. 研究发现, 国有银行自身的风险水平虽然相对最小,但是股票市场对其的风险溢出效应最大,股票市场对城市商业银行的风险溢出效应居中,而股份制银行受到股票市场的系统性风险的影响整体较小. 另外,国有银行、股份制银行和城商行对股票市场的敏感度依次增强.论文最后为削弱股市对商业银行的影响,降低商业银行受到来自外部的风险提供了政策建议.

     

    Abstract: This paper analyzes the risk spillover effects of the stock market on commercial banks from a new perspective. First, we use the Granger causality test to verify the relationship between the stock market and the commercial banks. Then, we use the CoVaR model based on quantile regressions to calculate the risk spillover effects of the stock market to commercial banks. Although the risk level of the state-owned banks is relatively minimal, the banks experience the largest risk spillover effects in the stock market. The risk spillover effects of the stock market to the city commercial banks are in the middle, while the overall systematic risk impacts of the stock market on the joint-stock banks are small. In addition, the sensitivity of the state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks to the stock market increased gradually. The results of this paper have important policy implications for weakening the impacts of the stock market on commercial banks, and reducing external risks on commercial banks.

     

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