韩开山, 周晓华. 利用CATE曲线选择最优治疗方案[J]. 应用概率统计, 2023, 39(1): 27-52. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2023.01.003
引用本文: 韩开山, 周晓华. 利用CATE曲线选择最优治疗方案[J]. 应用概率统计, 2023, 39(1): 27-52. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2023.01.003
HAN Kaishan, ZHOU Xiaohua. Selection of the Optimal Treatment with CATE Curve[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2023, 39(1): 27-52. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2023.01.003
Citation: HAN Kaishan, ZHOU Xiaohua. Selection of the Optimal Treatment with CATE Curve[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2023, 39(1): 27-52. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2023.01.003

利用CATE曲线选择最优治疗方案

Selection of the Optimal Treatment with CATE Curve

  • 摘要: 本文基于因果推断理论,提出根据病人的生物标记物进行最优治疗方案选择的统计方法. 这种方法是基于CATE(conditional average treatment effect)曲线以及CATE曲线的置信带(SCB)的. CSTE曲线表示给定生物标记物(协变量)的条件下,处理组的条件平均处理效应. 同时,CATE曲线及其SCB可以被用于对特定的治疗方案选择适宜的病人.文中利用B样条方法估计CATE曲线及其CSB, 并推导了其近似大样本性质.文中还通过模拟比较研究了CATE曲线的置信带的有限样本性质,并阐述了CATE曲线及其置信带在真实数据中如何选择最优治疗方案.

     

    Abstract: In this paper, we proposed a statistical framework for optimal treatment selection for a subgroup of patients, using their biomarker values based on casual inference. This new method was based on a concept, called conditional average treatment effect (CATE) curve, and CATE curve's simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs), which could be used to represent the average treatment effect for a given value of the covariate (biomarker) and to select an optimal treatment for one particular patient. We then proposed B-splines methods for estimating the CATE curves and constructing simultaneous confidence bands for the CATE curves. We derived the asymptotic properties of the proposed methods. We also conducted extensive simulation studies to evaluate finite-sample properties of the proposed simultaneous confidence bands. Finally, we illustrated the application of the CATE curve and its simultaneous confidence bands in optimal treatment selection in a real-world data set.

     

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