近似周期时间序列分析

Analysis of Approximately Periodic Time Series

  • 摘要: 本文首先给出了近似周期时间序列概念, 即 : 具有周期特征但是周期长度变化的时间序列. 比如, 太阳黑子序列具有11年左右的周期, 但是其周期并不是11, 而是在11左右变化, 这就是一个近似周期序列. 然后给出了提取近似周期趋势方法, 并且提出了广义差分算子, 这里提出的广义差分算子不仅可以消除时间序列的长期趋势和周期性, 而且还可以消除近似周期性. 最后, 以太阳黑子序列为例说明了广义差分算子的应用.

     

    Abstract: In this paper, we first define the concept of approximately periodic time series, that is, the length of their periods is not any constant. For example, the sunspot series has a period about 11 years, but the length of its periods is not just 11 years, which is approximately periodic. Then we give a method to extract approximately periodic trend and bring forward a generalized difference operator, which can eliminate not only time trend and periodicity but also approximately periodicity of time series. At last, we take the sunspot data as an example to show the application of generalized difference operator.

     

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