基于NGINAR(1)索赔过程的风险模型

A Risk Model base on NGINAR(1) Claims Process

  • 摘要: 本文考虑了一种索赔过程基于一阶几何整值自回归(NGINAR(1))时间序列的风险模型, 给出了该模型调节系数所满足的方程, 并通过数值例子分析了各阶段索赔次数之间相依性对调节系数和破产概率的影响. 模拟结果表明, 随着各阶段索赔次数之间相依性的增大, 调节系数逐渐减小, 同时破产概率逐渐增大.

     

    Abstract: A new risk model is constructed, where the total number of claims satisfies the geometric first-order integer-valued autoregressive process. Moreover, we obtain the equation of the adjustment coefficient. We discuss the relationships among the dependence on the number of claims in each period, the adjustment coefficient, and ruin probability by numerical simulations. The results show that, with the increase of the dependence on the number of claims in each period, the adjustment coefficient decrease and ruin probability increase gradually.

     

/

返回文章
返回