基于标值Cox过程的个体索赔准备金模型
Individual Claims Reserving Models Based on Marked Cox Processes
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摘要: 传统的准备金方法都是基于聚合数据的, 聚合数据是个体数据的简单汇总, 他们丢失了许多有用信息, 影响了准备金预测的准确性. 为了准确预测准备金, 精算学研究者发展了基于标值Poisson过程的个体索赔模型. 然而索赔的发生使用Poisson过程来刻画往往与现实情况不符, 因此本文提出了一个基于标值Cox过程的个体索赔模型, 并研究了此模型下的准备金预测方法. 本文的模型和传统的聚合索赔模型相比, 使用了更为完整的信息, 和已经存在的标值Poisson个体索赔模型相比, 由于Cox过程中随机强度的引入, 使得模型有了更强的现实刻画能力. 这些都将使得准备金的预测更为准确.Abstract: Traditional claims reserve approaches are all based on aggregated data and usually produce inaccurate projections of the reserve because the aggregated data make a great loss of information contained in individual claims. Thus, the researcher in actuarial science developed the so-called individual claim models that are based on marked Poisson processes. However, due to the inappropriateness of Poisson distribution in modelling the claims distributions, the present paper propose marked Cox processes as reserve models. Compared with the aggregate claims models, the models proposed in the current paper take more sufficient use of information contained in data and can be expected to produce more accurate evaluations in claim loss reserving.