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  • article
    Cui Ruwei, Jiang Hui
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST.

    In this article, using the limit theory of martingales, we study the
    moderate deviation for maximum likelihood estimator of unknown parameter in the stochastic
    partial differential equation driven by additive fractional Brownian motion with Hurst
    parameter , and the rate function can be calculated. Moreover, we apply our
    main result to several examples.

  • 综合报告
    Zhang Jianfang,Wang Xiuxiang
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2009, 25(2): 201-214.
    Histogram is the most widely used density estimator and data analysis tool. It is completely determined by two parameters: the bin width and one of the bin edges. However, many professional statisticians have no really definitive answers and simply give some intuitive advises when face to choose these two parameters. Even most statistical packages use the rules of thumbs for selecting the number of bins as a default. In this paper, we will present the histogram theories and optimal histogram construction algorithms that have been recently proposed. The methods of how to construct the data-based histograms are the
    emphasis of this paper.
  • 学术论文
    Huang Yongjun,Zhang Xinsheng
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2009, 25(4): 381-388.
    In this paper we obtain some new results on stochastic
    orders for order statistics from normal distributions. Let
    $X_1,\cdots,X_n,X^*_1,\cdots,X^*_n$ be independent normal random
    variables with $X_{i}\sim N(\mu_i,\sigma^2)$ and $X^*_{i}\sim
    N(\mu^*_i,\sigma^2)$, $i=1,\cdots,n$. Suppose that there exists a
    strictly monotone function $f$ such that
    $(f(\mu_{1}),\cdots,f(\mu_{n}))\succeq_{\text{m}}(f(\mu^{*}_{1}),\cdots,f(\mu^{*}_{n}))$,
    we prove that: (i) if $f'(x)f''(x)\geq 0$, then
    $X_{(1)}\leq_{\text{st}}X^*_{(1)}$; (ii) if $f'(x)f''(x)\leq 0$,
    then $X_{(n)}\geq_{\text{st}}X^*_{(n)}$. Moreover, let $X_{i}\sim
    N(\mu,\sigma_i^2)$ and $X^*_{i}\sim N(\mu,\sigma_i^{*2})$,
    $i=1,\cdots,n$. We obtain that
    $({1}/{\sigma_{1}},\cdots,{1}/{\sigma_{n}})\succeq_{\text{m}}
    ({1}/{\sigma^{*}_{1}},\cdots,{1}/{\sigma^{*}_{n}})$ implies that
    $X_{(1)}\leq_{\text{st}}X^*_{(1)}$ and
    $X_{(n)}\geq_{\text{st}}X^*_{(n)}$.
  • article
    FAN Xiliang, LI Fang, ZHU Dongjin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST.

    In this paper, we prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions
    for reflected backward stochastic differential equations driven by a
    Levy process, in which the reflecting barriers are just right
    continuous with left limits whose jumps are arbitrary. To derive the
    above results, the monotonic limit theorem of Backward SDE
    associated with Levy process is established.

  • article
    Chen Ling,Wei Laisheng
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2012, 28(6): 583-600.

    When the hyperparameters of prior
    distribution are partly known in linear model, the simultaneous
    parametric empirical Bayes estimators (PEBE) of the regression
    coefficients and error variance are constructed. The superiority of
    PEBE over the least squares estimator (LSE) of regression
    coefficients is investigated in terms of the the mean square error
    matrix (MSEM) criterion, and the superiority of PEBE over LSE of the
    error variance is discussed under the the mean square error (MSE)
    criterion. Finally, when all hyperparameters are unknown, the PEBE
    of regression coefficients and error variance are reconstructed and
    the superiority of them over LSE under the MSE criterion are studied
    by simulation methods.

  • 学术论文
    Liu Xiaohong:Wang Zhaojun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2009, 25(5): 461-474.
    As we know, the measurement error often
    exists in practice, and affects the performance of quality control
    in some cases. The autoregressive process with the measurement error
    is investigated in this paper. For detecting the step shift of the
    autoregressive process mean with measurement error, a CUSUM control
    chart based on the maximum log-likelihood ratio test is obtained.
    Simulated in-control and out-of-control ARL's are made for various
    measurement error and autocorrelation coefficients. The simulation
    results show that this new CUSUM scheme works well when the process
    is negatively autocorrelated.
  • 学术论文
    Xiao Xiaoqing,Xie Yingchao
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2008, 24(6): 561-573.
    Jacod, Jakubowski and M\'emin studied the integrated error processes $Y^n(X)$ and $Z^{n,p}(X)$ which relates to the error process $^n\!X_t=X_t-X_{[nt]/n}$ for semimartingale $X$ with independent increments. And they also investigated the limit theorems for the semimartingale sequence $\{(Y(X^n),Z^p(X^n))\}_{n\ge 1}$. If denote the limit points of $\{(Y(X^n),Z^p(X^n))\}_{n\ge 1}$ by
    $(Y(X),Z^p(X))$, Jacod et al. gave the formula of $(Y(X),Z^p(X))$. In this paper, we will investigate the convergence theorems of $Y(X^n)$ and $Z^{p}(X^n)$ for semimartingale sequence $\{X^n\}_{n\ge 1}$. We study mainly the convergence in law and the stable convergence in law of $\{(X^n,Y(X^n),Z^p(X^n))\}_{n\ge 1}$.
  • 学术论文
    Liu Wei,Wang Songgui,Dong Ping
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2009, 25(2): 155-163.
    For the balanced variance components model, the main contribution of this thesis is to provide a new spectral decomposition method for the covariance matrix. The computation of this new method is simple, it can give the number of different eigenvalues of covariance matrix and closed form of the projective matrices corresponding to its eigenvalues. Based on this new method we discuss several properties of variance components model. Further more, this thesis studies general variance components model. Firstly, we give the definition of simple spectral decomposition and obtain a necessary and sufficient condition of existence of simple spectral decomposition, then discuss some characters. To this kind of models, the application in statistical inference of simple spectral decomposition is also discussed.
  • 学术论文
    Zhao Lincheng, Wu Xiaoyan,Yang Yaning
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2008, 24(4): 407-420.
    Linear hypotheses in linear models can be tested by the M-method. The M-test, the Wald-type test (W-test) and the Rao's score-type test (R-test) are the three most commonly used testing methods. However, the critical values for these tests are usually related to the unknown error distribution. In this paper, we propose random weighting resampling methods for approximating the null distribution of these tests. It is shown that under both the null and the local alternatives these random weighting test statistics all have the same asymptotic null distributions as that for the original test statistic. The critical values of these tests can therefore be obtained by the Monte Carlo random weighting method. An important feature of the proposed methods is that the approximation are valid even the null hypothesis is not true and the power evaluation is possible under the local alternatives. We conduct extensive simulations under different error distribution
    specifications and different choices of random weighting variables to assess performance of proposed method. The results show that the random weighting M-testing method can provide pretty accurate approximation of the null distribution.
  • article
    LIU Bowen, ZHANG Jing, CHEN Xiaopeng
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS. 2024, 40(1): 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2024.01.001
    Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process is an important tool to study stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility in financial market. The statistical behavior of fractional CIR process is mainly simulated and discussed in this paper. Since there is no analytical expression of the CIR process, two different functions wfbm and fbmld are used to simulate the fractional Brownian motion, and the Euler-Maruyama (EM) method is used to investigate the expectation and variance of the fractional CIR process. Because the distribution of fractional CIR process can not be expressed by the solution of Fokker-Planck equation, the empirical distribution of fractional CIR process is simulated, and the change of empirical distribution with time is obtained. In order to further verify the algorithm and compare the advantages of the two different algorithms, a backward Euler type scheme of the CIR model and the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) model with analytical solution is carried out. By comparing figure and table, it is found that simulation by the function fbmld have a very high fitting precision with the theoretical analytical solution with expectation and variance.
  • article
    Sun Guohong,Zhang Chunsheng,Ji Lanpeng
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(5): 543-560.

    In this paper, we study the perturbed risk
    model with two classes of claims and a threshold dividend strategy.
    We assume that the two claim counting processes are, respectively,
    Poisson and renewal process with generalized Erlang(2) inter-claim
    times. Integro-differential equations and certain boundary
    conditions satisfied by the Gerber-Shiu penalty functions are
    derived in terms of matrices. Finally, we show that the closed form
    for the Gerber-Shiu penalty functions can be expressed by the
    Gerber-Shiu penalty functions without dividend payments and the
    matrix composed of two linearly independent solutions to the
    corresponding homogeneous integro-differential equations.

  • 学术论文
    Kong Xiangfen,He Zhen,Che Jianguo,Jin Huibin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2009, 25(2): 164-170.
    The estimator of population standard deviationcan be represented by sample standard deviation $s$, $s/c_4$, \ol{R}/d_2$ and $\wh{\sigma}_{\text{TOTAL}}$ based on MVA, espectively. This paper presents the estimation of $C_p$ and C_{pk}$ as well as the confidence interval of $C_p$ using different
    estimation methods of population standard deviation. Further, each
    estimation method is analyzed in an example.
  • article
    Cui Wenquan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(6): 614-632.

    Cox model is the most popular model in
    modelling the relationship between a survival outcome and predictive
    covariates, and has been gotten great success about regression
    modelling survival data. It is well known that the maximum partial
    likelihood estimates of regression parameters of Cox model are
    consistent, asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient.
    In this paper, based on marginal proportional hazards model and a
    partitioning-based method, we develop an approach to improve
    estimation efficiency of regression parameters in Cox model through
    introducing some other handy or easily collected survival data.
    Practically, for each subject, there frequently exist some other
    possibly-multivariate survival data available in addition to the
    main endpoint of survival times, which are easily collected or
    handy, and belong to the same subject or group as the survival data
    of interest. All the data construct multivariate survival data, and
    the famous WLW model, one important marginal proportional hazards
    model of multivariate survival data proposed in 1989 by Wei, Lin and
    Weissfels (1989), is the model of natural choice to regression
    modelling the aforementioned multivariate survival data. But, as
    pointed out in this paper, by making direct use of the WLW method ,
    the estimation efficiency of regression parameters of interest
    cannot be improved. Based on the partitioning-based method for WLW
    model, an approach to improve the estimation of regression parameter
    of Cox model is proposed and discussed. Simulation studies are
    conducted to investigate behavior of the proposed approach under
    practical sample size. Our results show that it performs well, only
    if the constructed multivariate survival data are correlated between
    the survival data of interest and the introduced survival data, even
    for small to moderate sample size.

  • article
    Shi Hongxing
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2012, 28(5): 551-560.

    Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression
    model is a popular tool for analyzing count data with excess zeros.
    In this paper, a flexible hierarchical ZIP regression model is
    proposed to handle with such data with cluster and Bayesian approach
    is develop. A Gibbs sampler is employed to produce the Bayesian
    estimate, a goodness-of-fit and a Bayesian information criterion
    (BIC) are used for model comparison and selection. Finally, an
    application of data from a ship damage incident study illustrates
    the proposed method.

  • article
    CHU Jiacheng, TANG Yanlin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS. 2023, 39(3): 455. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2023.03.010
    We review some results on the recent development of statistical inference for high-dimensional linear models. We introduce three debiased LASSO estimators, which are asymptotically normal and thus we can construct statistical inference for low dimensional parameters in high-dimensional setting. In addition, we give a brief introduction to the bootstrap assistant procedures to conduct simultaneous inference based on the debiased LASSO.
  • article
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST.
  • article
    Liang Gechun,Ren Xuemin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 369-379.

    Credit risk theory has become one of the
    cutting edges in modern finance over the past few years. We
    investigate into one of the important issues amongst portfolio's
    credit risk: Copula's applications in correlated default. We
    discover the relationship amongst Copula and other tools for the
    correlated default, such as structural models and reduced form
    models. Additionally, different from Lando (1998), we present
    another method and proof for the calculation of default probability
    of the single firm.

  • article
    Lin Qingquan,Yang Feng
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(2): 163-171.

    This study analyzes whether there exists
    asymmetric relationship between financial openness and economic
    growth for a panel of 55 countries and areas during the ten-year
    period 1996 to 2006. Setting World Bank's Governance Indicators (GI)
    which measures economic and political environment of countries as
    threshold variable, the advanced panel threshold model in Hansen
    (1999) is performed. The result reveals that there exists one
    threshold effect between financial openness and economic growth and
    the estimated threshold value is found to be 0.5896. When the GI of
    an economy lies below the threshold, the estimated coefficient
    between growth and financial openness is -0.0200, which means
    financial openness will hurt growth. While in the higher regime, the
    relationship between growth and financial openness is positive and
    the coefficient is 0.0667. Among the 55 countries and areas, all
    developed countries' GIs are in the higher regime, while more than
    60\% of the developing economies' GIs lie in the lower regime. So
    when developing economies carry out financial openness policy, they
    should better the economic and political environment
    simultaneously.

  • article
    Xu Changwei,Yan Guojun,Hao Shushuang
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(6): 633-641.

    In this paper we discuss relation between the
    Martin entrance boundary and Ray-Knight compactification of with
    respect to a honest minimal Q-processes, and mainly obtain the
    bijective mapping between the Martin entrance boundary of minimal
    Q-processes and  in Ray-Knight compactification
    when is finite.

  • article
    Ni Yanfeng, Zhu Zhongyi
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2012, 28(3): 285-300.

    For the analysis of partial linear model
    with longitudinal data, the general procedure is to fit the
    nonparametric part with kernel or spline estimation, followed by
    generalized linear model estimating frame. In this paper, we fit the
    nonparametric part with P-spline, and estimate the parametrical and
    nonparametric part with different Generalized method of moments
    estimation for different moment conditions, implemented by the proof
    of the asymptotical properties for the estimator, which is also been
    proved by simulation and illustrative example, from which we can
    also find out that different penalized general method of moments
    estimations for different moment conditions perform more
    efficiently.

  • article
    Xu Yajuan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2014, 30(2): 113-128.

    In this paper, we study the pricing of
    defaultable bonds and credit default swaps with counterparty risk
    using a contagion model. We present a contagion model of correlated
    defaults in a reduced model. The model assumes the intensities of
    default processes depend on the stochastic interest rate process
    driven by a stochastic differential equation and the default process
    of a counterparty. These are extensions of the models in Jarrow and
    Yu (2001) and Hao and Ye (2011). Moreover, we derive the explicit
    formulae for the pricing of defaultable bonds and credit default
    swap with counterparty risk using the properties of stochastic
    exponentials and make some numerical analysis on the explicit
    formulae.

  • article
    YANG Yanjiao, WANG Lichun
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS. 2024, 40(1): 18-32. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2024.01.002
    The Laplacian distribution is one of the most important distributions used to characterize the peak and thick-tailed data. This paper proposes a linear approximation Bayesian estimation with explicit solutions for the two parameters of the Laplace distribution. The superiority of linear approximate Bayesian estimation over other estimators is verified by theoretical derivation and numerical simulations, and the asymptotic behavior of the linear estimation with the increase of sample size is investigated.
  • article
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2010, 26(5): 553-558.

    自2006年7月1日交强险实施以来,
    机动车辆交通事故责任强制保险费率与道路交通事故和道路交通安全违法行为相联系的``双挂钩''制度备受各界关注.
    本文通过二元混合泊松分布给出了一个双挂钩浮动费率模型. 实证结果表明,
    上海2007年施行的双挂钩浮动费率从精算公平的角度来看并没有多收保费,
    但相对全国统一的2007款浮动费率系统而言, 平均费率要高20.48\%. 换言之,
    这两个费率浮动系统从长期来看都会导致平均保费水平下降,
    但全国统一浮动系统下降的幅度更大一些.

     

  • article
    Yan Dingqi, Yan Bo
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2012, 28(2): 172-180.

    The pricing of the derivatives associated
    with counterparty default risk is considered. Based on Merton's
    structured credit risk model, an explicit pricing formula of
    vulnerable options was derived when the underlying asset price and
    corporate value is assumed to follow a jump-diffusion process. A
    model of vulnerable option pricing is developed when the underlying
    asset price and corporate value is assumed to follow a
    jump-diffusion process, then the pricing of vulnerable option is
    discussed when the corporate liabilities are fixed and random were
    derived respectively.

  • article
    Huang Haiwu,Wang Dingcheng,Wu Qunying
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2012, 28(2): 181-188.

    In this paper, the almost sure convergence
    and complete convergence for $\wt{\varphi}$-mixing random variables
    are established. The results obtained not only extend and generalize
    the classical Khintchine-Kolmogorov Convergence Theorem, the Three
    Series Theorem for independent random variables to the case of
    $\wt{\varphi}$-mixing random variables, but also improve the
    relevant results without necessarily adding any extra any
    conditions.

  • article
    WANG Hao; CHENG Xiaoqiang; GONG Xiaojie
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2022.02.007

    This article considers the optimal dividend policy with delayed capital injections, and assumes that the capital injection delay follows the exponential distribution. We aim to find the optimal dividend and capital injection strategies to maximize the utility of dividend and capital. Since surplus process of the insurance company involves a mixed Poisson process, we use a stochastic differential equation to characterize the surplus process by adopting diffusion approximation
    techniques, and then we obtain the value function under the utility criterion. When the value function is smooth, the quasi variational inequality is obtained by using the dynamic programming principle. In this paper, we consider the value function from three different regions (the dividend area, the continuous area and the capital injection area). Through the boundary conditions, we derive the expression of the value function in different regions and present the verification theorem. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the effects of the capital injection delay under different parameters.

  • article
    TIAN Dejian; FANG Jie
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2022.03.006

    The paper investigates the optimal consumption and portfolio with consistence performance under Knightian uncertainty. The agent has Knightian uncertainty for the expected return of risky asset, which is characterized by \kappa-ignorance model. Consistent performance model asks for a dynamic wealth constraint, which requires the wealth always stays at or above the weighted average of the entire historical wealth levels. In the infinite time horizon, we obtain the
    optimal consumption and portfolio explicit solution for the model by the HJB equation and verification theorem.

  • 学术论文
    Tang Guoqiang,Department of Mathematics and Physics,Guilin University of Technology
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2009, 25(3): 290-300.
    In this paper, the parameters of regression credibility model with linear trend are estimated and tested. Orthogonal transformation is used to estimate parameter and unbiased estimate of parameters are obtained. Likelihood ratio test is used to test randomness and linear trend. The better P-value of likelihood ratio test is got and Monte-Carlo simulation is performed.
  • 学术论文
    Yan Rongfang,Zhang Juan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2010, 26(3): 245-254.

    In this paper, a new class of distributions,
    namely asymmetric Marshall-Olkin Laplace (AMOL) distribution, is
    introduced, some properties and numerical characteristics of AMOL
    are obtained, and a necessary and sufficient of autoregressive model
    with AMOL as marginal distribution is derived.

  • article
    Ye Zhongxing, Zhuang Ruixin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2012, 28(1): 79-86.

    This paper discusses the pricing of total
    return swap which is one of the credit derivatives. As the total
    return swap contracts are exposed to both interest rate risk and
    default risk, this paper characterizes the interest rate risk
    through HJM model. Intensity model and hybrid model are used to
    characterize the default risk and to derive the corresponding
    pricing formula for two cases when the default time and interest
    rate are independent or correlated, respectively. Monte Carlo
    simulation method is used here to derive the numerical solution of
    the pricing problem.

  • article
    HU Siyi
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2022.04.002

    This paper studies an iterative method of estimating parameters in Gamma distribution based on maximum likelihood estimation and EM algorithm improved by non gradient information spectrum residual method in the case of classified data, Type-I interval censered data, Type-II interval censered data, and it proves the strong consistency of the algorithm. The simulation results show that the iterative method proposed in this paper can greatly shorten the running time while ensuring the accuracy, the estimated mean square error tends to zero with the increase of sample size.

  • 学术论文
    Xu Wangli
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2009, 25(3): 301-308.
    In this paper, we propose the improved ANOVA estimates for the linear mixed models with three variance components which are better than ANOVA estimators in the criteria of smaller mean square error (MSE). Based on the fact that the proposed variance estimators are not nonnegative with positive probability, we censor the proposed estimators in some points. Furthermore, we discuss the sufficient conditions to ensure the truncated estimators be nonnegative. The conclusions are extended to more general linear mixed models models with random effects.
  • article
    Du Zhikuo,Zhang Dixin
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(4): 425-434.

    This paper extends Hull-White interest
    rate model to cover cross-currency case. In the extended model we
    discuss valuation of cross-currency Bermudan swaptions. Since the
    closed-form pricing formula is hard to obtain, we apply the Least
    Squared Monte-Carlo approach to find the optimal exercising time.
    Some numerical results with different parameters are presented.

  • 学术论文
    Lin Zhengyan,Zheng Jing
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2009, 25(3): 281-289.
    In the paper, we give a new generalization of fraction Brownian motion (gfBm). We study the existence of the local nondeterminism and the joint continuity of the local time of gfBm, and we get upper and lower bounds of Hausdorff dimensions of the level sets of a gfBm.
  • 学术论文
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2010, 26(3): 309-322.

    In this paper an insurer is assumed to invest his
    reserve in a financial market, which consists of a risky asset and a
    risk-free asset. The random impulsive model for stock prices is used
    to depict the price of risky security. A controlled diffusion risk
    process is presented to describe such a dynamic setting. Explicit
    and closed-form solutions for the optimal dynamic choice are derived
    when excess-of-loss or proportional reinsurance is incorporated with
    an investment under the optimization criteria of maximizing the
    expectation of quadratic utility of the terminal wealth at a fixed
    terminal time, respectively. Based on the explicit solutions, the
    influence of the dependence between the finance risk and insurance
    risk on the optimal dynamic choice is illustrated numerically.

  • article
    Zhang Zhihua, Chen Pingyan
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2012, 28(5): 471-478.

    In this paper, the authors discuss the moment
    complete convergence for weighted sums of -mixing random
    variables, and obtains the sufficient condition for moment complete
    convergence of -mixing sequence under some mixing rate
    condition, which generalize the result of moment complete
    convergence for weighted sums of i.i.d. random variables to
    -mixing random variables.

  • article
    Tang Yincai, Wang Pingping, Chen Hui
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2015, 31(1): 89-102.

    This article considers Bayesian inference of the linear regression
    model with one change point in observations, provided that the prior distribution of the change
    point is the beta-binomial distribution or the power prior introduced by Ibrahim et al. (2003)
    and the variances of the observations on two sides of the change point are the same. We get
    closed forms of the posterior distributions of the change point, the regression coefficients
    and the common variance. This not only generalizes the result of Ferreira (1975) from the the
    discrete uniform prior distribution of the change point t to the beta-binomial distribution
    which can well describe the shape of the change point distribution, but also can be further
    generalized to the power prior distribution of the change point, which included the historical
    information. Simulation shows higher performance or accuracy of the Bayesian method when the
    change point follows the beta-binomial and power prior.

  • article
    ZOU Hang, JIANG Yunlu
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS. 2024, 40(1): 157-181. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4268.2024.01.010
    With the advance of the era of big data, high-dimensional data are frequently collected in many research fields such as economics, finance, and biomedicine. One of the characteristics of high-dimensional data is that the variable dimension p increases with the increase of the sample size n and usually exceeds the sample size. At the same time, outliers are also prone to appear in high-dimensional data. Therefore, how to overcome the influence of outliers on high-dimensional statistical inference, so as to obtain a
    more accurate model, is one of the hot issues in current statistical research. This paper is an overview of robust variable selection methods under high-dimensional linear models. Specifically, first of all, we introduce three indicators to evaluate robustness: influence function, breakdown point and maximum deviation. Secondly, it focuses on the selection methods of robust variables, including response variables with outliers, response variables and covariates with outliers, high breakdown point and efficient variable selection methods. Then, the related algorithms are introduced, and different variable selection methods are compared through simulation and examples. Finally, the problems of high-dimensional robust effective variable selection methods and the possible development direction in the future are briefly discussed.
  • 学术论文
    Liang Fengzhen, Shi Daoji
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2008, 24(4): 381-387.
    The dependence measures are discussed for the discrete random variables in this paper. It is proved that the asymptotic independence of the minimum and
    maximum of $n$ i.i.d. random variables, and explicit expressions are given for the value of Kendall's and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between minimum and maximum order statistics.
  • article
    Xu Qunfang
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATIST. 2011, 27(1): 61-71.

    The conditional mean, variance and higher-conditional
    moment functions are often of special interest in regression. In
    this paper,we generalize central mean subspace and focus especial
    attention on the k th-conditional moment function. For this, we
    first borrow the new concept --- the central k th-conditional
    moment subspace, and study its basic properties. To avoid computing
    the inverse of the covariance of predictors with large
    dimensionality and highly collinearity, we develop a method called
    the $k$th-moment weighted partial least squares to handle with the
    estimation of the central k th-conditional moment subspace.
    Finally, we obtain strong consistency