基于非线性关联网络的我国上市银行风险传染分析

Risk Contagion Analysis of Listed Banks in China Based on Nonlinear Correlation Network

  • 摘要: 本文研究了银行间风险的传染问题.采用非线性度量方法构建我国上市银行间的关联网络,基于相关数据,通过非线性关联,建立阈值网络和最小生成树,研究关联网络的结构特征,分析风险传导路径及动态变化情况.实证表明:我国上市银行具有小世界特征,发生危机时银行与银行间的联系程度加强;民生银行、交通银行、北京银行和贵阳银行是系统重要性银行,尤其是贵阳银行值得重点关注.本文研究表明,在金融监管中,要加强对银行风险传导的潜在路径及演化过程的监测,提前做好防控,防止发生系统性风险.

     

    Abstract: This paper examines the contagion of interbank risks. The correlation network between listed banks in China is constructed by nonlinear measurement method, and the threshold network and minimum spanning tree (MST) are established through nonlinear correlation based on relevant data, the structural characteristics of the association network are studied, and the risk transmission path and dynamic changes are analyzed. Empirical evidence shows that China's listed banks have the characteristics of a small world, and the degree of contact between banks and banks is strengthened in the event of a crisis. China Minsheng Bank, Bank of Communications, Bank of Beijing and Bank of Guiyang are systemically important banks, especially Bank of Guiyang deserves attention. This study shows that in financial supervision, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of the potential path and evolution process of bank risk transmission, and prevent and control in advance to prevent the occurrence of systemic risks.

     

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