ZHANG Ying-Ying, . Optimal Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of Classical Conditional Power under Normal Models[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2025, 41(2): 277-304.
Citation: ZHANG Ying-Ying, . Optimal Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of Classical Conditional Power under Normal Models[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2025, 41(2): 277-304.

Optimal Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of Classical Conditional Power under Normal Models

  • 摘要: 受试者工作特征(ROC) 分析在临床试验中非常重要和有用. 经典条件势(CCP)是给定真实治疗效果和中期结果值的经典拒绝域的概率. 对于正态模型下的假设和反向假设, 我们获得了CCP的ROC曲线的解析表达式, 找到了CCP的最优ROC曲线, 研究了CCP的ROC曲线的优越性, 计算了假阳性率(FPR), 真阳性率(TPR) 和最优CCP的临界值, 并在最优CCP的中期做出了通过/不通过的决定. 此外, 还进行了大量的数值实验来证明我们的理论结果. 最后, 通过一个真实的数据例子来说明最优CCP的通过/不通过决策.

     

    Abstract: A Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis of a power is important and useful in clinical trials. A Classical Conditional Power (CCP) is a probability of a classical rejection region given values of true treatment effect and interim result. For hypotheses and reversed hypotheses under normal models, we obtain analytical expressions of the ROC curves of the CCP, find optimal ROC curves of the CCP, investigate the superiority of the ROC curves of the CCP, calculate critical values of the False Positive Rate (FPR), True Positive Rate (TPR), and cutoff of the optimal CCP, and give go/no go decisions at the interim of the optimal CCP. In addition, extensive numerical experiments are carried out to exemplify our theoretical results. Finally, a real data example is performed to illustrate the go/no go decisions of the optimal CCP.

     

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