带跳的通胀风险对可持续金融福利结果的影响

The Impact of Jump Inflation Risk on Sustainable Financial Welfare Consequences

  • 摘要: 本文基于一个带有投资规制的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究了受泊松跳过程驱动的通胀风险对于可持续金融福利结果的影响.政府利用较低的资本成本来激励企业为减灾积累资金,从而实现经济体的“脱碳”.脱碳资本的积累能有效降低天气灾害和气候临界点的发生率.在通胀风险的影响下,获得可持续企业资质的公司随着通胀风险的增加,其资本成本会随之降低.不可持续企业和可持续企业之间必要报酬率差额会随着通胀风险的增加而减少.脱碳资本存量的积累同样也会随着通胀风险的增加而降低.这些都表明了通胀风险对于经济体脱碳有着消极的影响.此外,随着通胀风险的增加,在均衡状态下,社会最优的投资会降低、消费会上升,福利水平会下降.

     

    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of inflation risk, driven by a Poisson jump process, on sustainable financial welfare consequences within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with investment mandates. Governments use the lower cost of capital to incentivize firms to accumulate funds for disaster mitigation, thereby “decarbonizing” the economy. The accumulation of decarbonization capital effectively reduces the incidence of weather disasters and climate tipping points. Under the influence of inflation risk, the capital costs for the qualified sustainable firms decrease as inflation risk increases. The differences of required rate of return between unsustainable and sustainable firms diminish with inflation risk. The accumulation of decarbonization capital stock also decreases with increasing inflation risk. These findings indicate that inflation risk has a negative impact on the economy’s decarbonization efforts. Furthermore, as inflation risk increases, the socially optimal investment decreases, consumption rises, and welfare level decline in equilibrium.

     

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