基于联合特征函数的多元时间序列在线监测方法

Monitoring Multivariate Time Series Based on Joint Characteristic Function

  • 摘要: 本文研究了多元时间序列中的变点监测问题.为了快速检测边际分布和时间依赖结构的变化,本文提出了一个基于联合特征函数的CUSUM型监测统计量.从理论上研究了监测统计量在原假设和备择假设下的渐近性质.考虑到原假设下渐近分布依赖于样本分布,本文采用多元Stationary Bootstrap方法来估计检验的临界值.数值模拟与实证分析结果验证了该方法的有效性.

     

    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the change point monitoring problem in multivariate time series. To quickly detect changes in the marginal distribution as well as the time-dependent structure, we propose a CUSUM type monitoring statistic based on the joint characteristic function. The asymptotic properties of the monitoring statistic under the null hypotheses and alternative hypotheses are investigated theoretically. Given the complexity of the asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis, a multivariate stationary bootstrap method is employed to estimate the critical value of the test. Numerical simulations and a real life case study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

     

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