具有外生变量的高维函数型时间序列自回归模型
High-Dimensional Functional Time Series Autoregressive Models with Exogenous Variables
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摘要: 为了处理存在观测误差和外生变量的高维函数型时间序列的建模问题,本文提出具有外生变量的高维函数型时间序列自回归模型(VFARX)的分析框架.在考虑潜在观测误差的情况下,使用基于非零滞后阶自协方差函数定义的正定算子实现函数降维,通过块正则化最小距离(块RMD)方法将参数估计转化为一组条件优化问题的求解,并给出了估计量的理论性质.在高频股票交易场景中,引入不同外生变量的四种VFARX (1,1)模型表现出明显优势.Abstract: To address the modeling problem of high-dimensional functional time series objects with observation errors and exogenous variables, this paper proposes an analytical framework for a highdimensional functional time series autoregressive model (VFARX) with exogenous variables. Considering potential observation errors, a positive definite operator based on a non-zero lag order autocovariance function is used to reduce the dimensionality of the function. The parameter estimation is transformed into a set of conditional optimization problems through the block regularized minimum distance (block RMD) method, and the theoretical properties of the estimator are given. In high-frequency stock trading scenarios, four VFARX (1, 1) models with different exogenous variables exhibit significant advantages.
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