消防气体灭火系统可靠性的贝叶斯估计
A Bayes Method for Reliability Calculation of Gas Fire-Extinguishing System
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摘要: 由于气体灭火系统样本少, 不易计算可靠性,本文采用贝叶斯方法, 将验前信息和现场样本信息相结合,从而进行气体灭火系统的可靠性估计, 其中包括多源验前信息的折算、融合、检验、权重的计算以及单元和系统的可靠性贝叶斯估计,最后通过实例阐明了该方法的可行性.Abstract: The reliability of gas fire-extinguishing system is difficult to calculate because of the small sample size, so this paper uses Bayesian method to calculate reliability of the gaseous fire-extinguishing system. The method process includes conversion of multi-source prior information, information fusion, information check, weight calculation and reliability calculation of unit and system. The method properly solves the problem of reliability calculation by combining the field sample information with multi-source prior information.