关于可信性模型的若干评注

Some Remarks on Credibility Model

  • 摘要: 可信性模型是经验费率厘定中最重要的方法.本文在简述可信性概念的发展简史并强调了有限扰动可信性与最精确可信性的区别后,重点剖析了最精确可信性的理论基础,且详尽地解释了导出(修正)Bühlmann单合同可信性模型的基本思路.在阶段性地展示了建立此模型基本假定的过程后,给出了风险保费与预测值的可信性估计的简明公式.现今最基础的Bühlmann-Straub可信性模型可视为由多个相互独立、且具有相同结构函数的(修正)Bühlmann单合同模型相嵌而成.这种组嵌方式使得估计该模型的未知结构参数成为可能.本文最后概述了可信性模型的主要进展.全文的叙述是说明性的,不涉及技术性证明过程,目的在于为理解可信性模型提供一个直观与清晰的思路。

     

    Abstract: Credibility theory is the most important method in experience rating. In this paper, the developing history of credibility theory is briefly described first and the difference between limited fluctuation credibility and greatest accuracy credibility is also stressed at the same time. Then, the theoretical bases of greatest accuracy credibility is analyzed with emphasis, and the intuitive idea leading to (adjusted) Buhlmann credibility model of single contract is explained in detail. After the procedure used to establish the basic assumptions for this model is shown, the concise formulas of credibility estimator for risk premium and prediction are given. Nowadays, the most fundamental Buhlmann-Straub credibility model can be regarded as combined by some independent (adjusted) Buhlmann credibility models of single contract which have same structure functions. This particular combining pattern makes it possible to estimate the unknown structure parameters of such model. Finally, the structural parameter estimation is introduced and the main advances in researches for credibility model are mentioned. The description of this paper is illustrative and no technical proofs are involved. The aim is to provide an intuitive and apparent approach to understand the credibility model.

     

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