Abstract: Caring for the aged men is becoming a more and more serious problem in Shanghai. An agedcare fraternity will be set up to try to resolve this problem. In the current paper, we introduce a frequency procedure to estimate the distribution functions of a multistage survival model. A parameterized distribution family is found to approximate the estimated distributions. Based on these estimated distribution functions the membership due of the aged-care fraternity can be calculated. The numeral results are obtained in some special cases.