恒定应力加速寿命试验的贝叶士方法

BAYESIAN APPROACH TO AN ACCELERATED LIFE TEST

  • 摘要: 恒定应力加速寿命试验已在实践中广泛应用。但大多在已知失效分布和加速寿命试验模型下讨论、本文在失效分布未知条件下,用贝叶士方法首先给出各应力下失效率的估计。然后用这些估计值给出加速寿命模型,从而外推正常应力下的失效率估计。本文最后给出一个完整的例子,详细地叙述了使用这个方法的全过程。

     

    Abstract: Much work on the statistical analysis of accelerated life tests have been done, generally under the following two assumptions: (1) that the failure distribution of the items is known; (2) that there is a known functional ralationship between the parameters of the failure distribution and the applied stress. These assumptions are not reasonable in many practical situations. Proschan and Singpurwalla proposed a Bayesian solution without requiring the above two assumptions. The author of this paper, however, does not agree with their choice of prior distribution. In addition, their adjustment of the original data at certain places is too arbitrary to be acceptable. This paper intends to rectify these points so as to make the implementation easier and more reasonable.

     

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