威布尔型设备修如旧模型下可用度的Fiducial推断

The Fiducial Inference for Repaired as Old Weibull Distributed Systems

  • 摘要: 本文对于威布尔型设备考虑一类修如旧模型,分别在维修时间是常数和是在有限个点上取值的随机变量两种情况下导出了设备在任意时刻可用度函数的表达式:基于设备寿命试验的完全数据,给出了威布尔分布在任意时刻可靠度的 Fiducia 分布,进而求出设备可用度的点估计和置信下限,最后进行了模拟研究,结果表明,该方法在小样本(n<10)情况下置信下限的平均精度尚好,但稳定性较差,样本量n>15 时效果较好.

     

    Abstract: For Weibull distributed systems, one kind of repaired as old model is considered, and the availability function in any time is derived respectively for the maintainance time is a constant or is a discrete r.v.; Based on the complete-data in life testing, a Fiducial distribution is given to the the reliability function, furthermore, the point estimation and the lower bound confidence estimation are derived. A monte carlo result is given in the end, and it shows that, in the small sample situation (n<10), the estimation to the lower bound confidence is ok but not steady; when the sample size is more than 15, a more accurate inference can be drawn.

     

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