金融开放与经济增长---基于面板阈值模型的实证分析
Financial Openness and Economic Growth --- An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Threshold Model
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摘要: 本文选取55个国家(或地区)1996-2006年间面板数据, 使用Hansen (1999)的面板阈值模型, 以世界银行开发的国家治理指标(该指标衡量国家或地区的经济及政治环境)作为阈值变量, 考察当治理指标处于不同区间时, 经济增长对金融开放程度变化率的回归系数是否显著不同. 实证结果显示: 治理指标存在阈值0.5896, 当治理指标高于此阈值时, 上述回归系数为0.0667, 也就是说, 金融开放可以促进经济增长, 而当治理指标低于此阈值时, 回归系数为-0.0200, 金融开放则可能会阻碍经济增长. 考察各国的治理指标, 可以发现样本中所有发达国家的治理指标均高于阈值, 而60\%以上的发展中国家(或地区)则低于该阈值. 这表明: 后者在实施金融开放政策的同时, 应同时注重改善国内的经济和政治环境Abstract: This study analyzes whether there exists asymmetric relationship between financial openness and economic growth for a panel of 55 countries and areas during the ten-year period 1996 to 2006. Setting World Bank's Governance Indicators (GI) which measures economic and political environment of countries as threshold variable, the advanced panel threshold model in Hansen (1999) is performed. The result reveals that there exists one threshold effect between financial openness and economic growth and the estimated threshold value is found to be 0.5896. When the GI of an economy lies below the threshold, the estimated coefficient between growth and financial openness is -0.0200, which means financial openness will hurt growth. While in the higher regime, the relationship between growth and financial openness is positive and the coefficient is 0.0667. Among the 55 countries and areas, all developed countries' GIs are in the higher regime, while more than 60\% of the developing economies' GIs lie in the lower regime. So when developing economies carry out financial openness policy, they should better the economic and political environment simultaneously.