赵雅琪, 李志民. 基于非线性关联网络的我国上市银行风险传染分析[J]. 应用概率统计, 2025, 41(4): 636-648. DOI: 10.12460/j.issn.1001-4268.aps.2024.2023084
引用本文: 赵雅琪, 李志民. 基于非线性关联网络的我国上市银行风险传染分析[J]. 应用概率统计, 2025, 41(4): 636-648. DOI: 10.12460/j.issn.1001-4268.aps.2024.2023084
ZHAO Yaqi, LI Zhimin, . Risk Contagion Analysis of Listed Banks in China Based on Nonlinear Correlation Network[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2025, 41(4): 636-648.
Citation: ZHAO Yaqi, LI Zhimin, . Risk Contagion Analysis of Listed Banks in China Based on Nonlinear Correlation Network[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2025, 41(4): 636-648.

基于非线性关联网络的我国上市银行风险传染分析

Risk Contagion Analysis of Listed Banks in China Based on Nonlinear Correlation Network

  • 摘要: 本文研究了银行间风险的传染问题. 采用非线性度量方法构建我国上市银行间的关联网络, 基于相关数据, 通过非线性关联, 建立阈值网络和最小生成树, 研究关联网络的结构特征, 分析风险传导路径及动态变化情况. 实证表明:我国上市银行具有小世界特征, 发生危机时银行与银行间的联系程度加强;民生银行、交通银行、北京银行和贵阳银行是系统重要性银行, 尤其是贵阳银行值得重点关注. 本文研究表明, 在金融监管中, 要加强对银行风险传导的潜在路径及演化过程的监测, 提前做好防控, 防止发生系统性风险.

     

    Abstract: This paper examines the contagion of interbank risks. We construct the correlation network among China's listed banks using a nonlinear measurement method, and build the threshold network and minimum spanning tree (MST) from the nonlinear correlations based on relevant data. We study the structural characteristics of the association network and analyze the risk-transmission path and dynamic changes. The empirical evidence indicates that China's listed banks exhibit a small-world structure, and the degree of contact between banks and banks is strengthened in the event of a crisis. China Minsheng Bank, Bank of Communications, Bank of Beijing and Bank of Guiyang are systemically important banks, with Bank of Guiyang deserving attention. This study shows that in financial supervision, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of the potential path and evolution process of bank risk transmission, and prevent and control in advance to prevent the occurrence of systemic risks.

     

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