李扬, 刘潇优, 洪伊铭, 刘相儒, 刘玉坤. 无协变量的捕获-再捕获数据下种群规模的完全似然估计方法[J]. 应用概率统计, 2026, 42(1): 90-103. DOI: 10.12460/j.issn.1001-4268.aps.2025.2024041
引用本文: 李扬, 刘潇优, 洪伊铭, 刘相儒, 刘玉坤. 无协变量的捕获-再捕获数据下种群规模的完全似然估计方法[J]. 应用概率统计, 2026, 42(1): 90-103. DOI: 10.12460/j.issn.1001-4268.aps.2025.2024041
LI Yang, LIU Xiaoyou, HONG Yiming, LIU Xiangru, LIU Yukun, . Covariate-Free Likelihood Ratio Confidence Interval for Abundance Based on Capture-Recapture Data[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2026, 42(1): 90-103.
Citation: LI Yang, LIU Xiaoyou, HONG Yiming, LIU Xiangru, LIU Yukun, . Covariate-Free Likelihood Ratio Confidence Interval for Abundance Based on Capture-Recapture Data[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2026, 42(1): 90-103.

无协变量的捕获-再捕获数据下种群规模的完全似然估计方法

Covariate-Free Likelihood Ratio Confidence Interval for Abundance Based on Capture-Recapture Data

  • 摘要: 种群规模是生物多样性度量的一个重要指标, 对生态学研究具有重要意义. 在无协变量捕获-再捕获数据下, 经典的种群规模估计方法包括Chapman估计和Dang等人(2021)的估计, 这些方法只适用于两次捕获的情况, 且相应的区间都是Wald型的, 其覆盖率可能会低于置信水平, 且可能包含不合理的值. 为此, 我们提出一种基于全局似然函数的种群规模的似然估计方法. 相比经典方法, 其显著优点是不仅适用于两次捕获的情况, 也适用于多次捕获的场景. 我们构造了样本的全局似然函数和似然比统计量, 并证明似然比统计量渐近服从自由度为1的卡方分布, 进而给出种群规模的最大似然估计和似然比区间估计. 数值模拟结果表明, 与经典估计方法不同, 我们提出的似然比置信区间的覆盖率总是接近或者高于置信水平, 且在捕获次数超过2次的情况下, 仍然具有令人满意的表现. 最后, 我们通过对香港黄腹鹪莺数据的分析发现, 经典的Wald型区间左端点可能低于观测到的个体数量, 这是不合理的, 而我们的似然比区间则给出了合理的结果, 进一步证实了似然比区间估计的广泛适用性和优越性.

     

    Abstract: Abundance or population size is an important indicator for measuring biodiversity and has significant implications for ecological research. Without covariate capture and recapture data, the classic population size estimation methods include Chapman's estimator and Dang et al.'s (2021) estimator, which are only applicable to the case of two captures. Their corresponding intervals are all Wald-type; their coverage may be lower than the confidence level, and may contain unreasonable values. To address these limitations, we propose a likelihood estimation method for population size based on the full likelihood function. Compared to classical methods, its significant advantage is that it is not only suitable for situations with two captures but also for scenarios with multiple captures. We construct the global likelihood function and likelihood ratio statistic for the samples, and prove that the likelihood ratio statistic asymptotically follows a chi-square distribution with one degree of freedom. Furthermore, the maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood ratio interval estimation of population size are provided. The numerical simulation results indicate that, unlike classical estimation methods, the coverage of the likelihood ratio confidence interval we propose is always close to or higher than the confidence level, and even when the number of captures exceeds two, it still performs satisfactorily. Finally, an analysis of Yellow-bellied Warbler data from Hong Kong reveals that the left endpoint of the classic Wald-type interval may be lower than the observed number of individuals, which is unreasonable. In contrast, our likelihood ratio interval provides reasonable results, which confirms the widespread applicability and superiority of our likelihood ratio interval estimator.

     

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