一类双重时间序列模型的预报
THE FORECASTING OF SOME DOVBLY TIME SERIES MODELS
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摘要: 满足 xt-A0=(θt+α)xt-1+αt的时间序列模型称为双重时序模型.其中αt是正态平稳白噪声序列,θt为一个随机序列.本文给出了当θt服从 AR(1)或 MA(1)模型时,xt的多步最小方差预报及其与适时线性最小方差预报的计算机模拟对比。Abstract: A doubly time series model is defined to satisfy the relation Xt-A0=(θt+α)Xt-1+αt whereθg:t=0,1,2,…is itself a stochastic series,andαt:t=0,1,2…is white noise with Eαt2=σ2..Whenθt:t=0,1,2,…satisfy AR(1)or MA(1)model,this paper gives out poly-steps minimum mean square error forecast ofXt,t=0,1,2…, and the comparison of its properties with updated linear minimum mean square error forecasted by computer simulation.